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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.